SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON
NOVEMBER 1-APRIL 30
NEW OUTLOOK RELEASED
Tropical cyclones, like hurricanes, are known for their powerful winds, heavy rains, and potential to cause significant destruction.ย Tropical cyclones frequently affect the southern Pacific and can pose serious threats to both public health and infrastructure.ย All vessels are advised to have a plan of action for the cyclone season.
According to New Zealand’s National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and Metservice, the South Pacific may see either fewer or a normal number of tropical cyclones this season.ย The cyclone season in the South Pacific starts November 1 and runs until the April 30, with the typical ‘peak’ of the season being January – March.ย ย The outlook that has recently been released, “Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook – October 2024” describes a slower start to the Cyclone season, potentially less cyclone risk overall in the eastern region while potentially elevated risk in the western region.ย According to the NIWA Outlook, “As of early October 2024, sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean are below average and close to La Niรฑa thresholds.”ย Forecasters are observing more La Niรฑa-like characteristics that tend to reduce risk in the east and elevate risk in the west where warmer water may ‘stack up’ later in the season.ย As with many weather outlooks of late there continues to be caution that while there may be less risk in the frequency of tropical storms this season, there is still a risk that those that come may intensify more rapidly or simply be very intense.
For cruisers in French Polynesia South Pacific Posse member Scott on Tartaruga shares:
What is critical to following storms in FP is the location of the MJO. Madden Julien Oscillation. You can research that but when that is over French Poly that is when the highest probability of big storms occur. Per some local Tahiti sailors they almost never have any cyclonic storms outside of MJO events. This last season Fiji announced the MJO forecast and when it would be over FP and boom the storms came. Also note that Fiji is the official metrological organization for these storms. Another important data point is they name their storms very early, mean the wind scale starts at a much lower number….NOAA tracks (the MJO) closely as well. I would educate yourself on how to read the graph. It is a bit strange.
Fiji Meteorological Service Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre Nadi-Tropical Cyclone Centre also just released a forecast on the upcoming tropical Cyclone season.ย Their predictions are similar.
Stay alert on great weather sites including:
- https://www.met.gov.fj/index.php?page=tcoutlook
- https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/southwest-pacific-tropical-cyclone-outlook/southwest-pacific-tropical-cyclone-outlook-october-2024