POSSE SPONSOR PREDICTWIND ADDS NEW LIGHTNING FEATURE
OCEAN POSSE SPONSOR PREDICTWIND
ADDS NEW LIGHTNING FEATURE
Predictwind supports the Ocean Posse with free tracking and a [ must be logged in to see ] 20 % Discount off our pro packages – to claim your discount please login and email support@predictwind.com with your vessel name and email address.
For those of you with paid subscriptions to Predictwind they rolled out new features this week that send extreme weather alerts and show lightening predictions- pretty cool go check it out!
Powerful features to keep you in control.
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Weather Mediterranean East Atlantic
Weather Mediterranean
Eastern Med - Levantine Sea
Eastern Med - Sea of Crete
Eastern Med - Aegean Sea
Central Med - Ionian Sea
Central Med - Adriatic Sea
Central Med - Tyrrhenian Sea
Central Med - Ligurian Sea
Western Med - Balearic Sea
Western Med - Alboran Sea
East Atlantic
1 SPAIN MED
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2 SPAIN & PORTUGAL ATLANTIC
3 FRANCE SPAIN & PORTUGAL ATLANTIC + BAY OF BISCAY
4 MOROCCO
5 MADEIRA
7 CANARY ISLANDS SPAIN
8 CAPE VERDE
9 THE CROSSING
SV WANDERLUST MUSINGS
IN THE END,
WE ALL GET WHAT WE WANT
Ocean Posse members Fabio and Kristin Potenti are sailing on SV WANDERLUST in the South Pacific. They maintain a Facebook Page: Harbors Unknown, and a youtube channel to document and share their musings and experiences. Below Fabio shares his most recent musings with the Ocean Posse:
SY WANDERLUST 🇺🇸 Kristin, Fabio, & dog Yoda - Seawind 1600
THANK YOU KRISTIN & FABIO FOR SHARING YOUR PASSION FOR THIS LIFESTYLE!
SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON OUTLOOK
SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON
NOVEMBER 1-APRIL 30
NEW OUTLOOK RELEASED
Tropical cyclones, like hurricanes, are known for their powerful winds, heavy rains, and potential to cause significant destruction. Tropical cyclones frequently affect the southern Pacific and can pose serious threats to both public health and infrastructure. All vessels are advised to have a plan of action for the cyclone season.
According to New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and Metservice, the South Pacific may see either fewer or a normal number of tropical cyclones this season. The cyclone season in the South Pacific starts November 1 and runs until the April 30, with the typical 'peak' of the season being January - March. The outlook that has recently been released, "Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook - October 2024" describes a slower start to the Cyclone season, potentially less cyclone risk overall in the eastern region while potentially elevated risk in the western region. According to the NIWA Outlook, "As of early October 2024, sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean are below average and close to La Niña thresholds." Forecasters are observing more La Niña-like characteristics that tend to reduce risk in the east and elevate risk in the west where warmer water may 'stack up' later in the season. As with many weather outlooks of late there continues to be caution that while there may be less risk in the frequency of tropical storms this season, there is still a risk that those that come may intensify more rapidly or simply be very intense.
For cruisers in French Polynesia South Pacific Posse member Scott on Tartaruga shares:
What is critical to following storms in FP is the location of the MJO. Madden Julien Oscillation. You can research that but when that is over French Poly that is when the highest probability of big storms occur. Per some local Tahiti sailors they almost never have any cyclonic storms outside of MJO events. This last season Fiji announced the MJO forecast and when it would be over FP and boom the storms came. Also note that Fiji is the official metrological organization for these storms. Another important data point is they name their storms very early, mean the wind scale starts at a much lower number....NOAA tracks (the MJO) closely as well. I would educate yourself on how to read the graph. It is a bit strange.
Fiji Meteorological Service Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre Nadi-Tropical Cyclone Centre also just released a forecast on the upcoming tropical Cyclone season. Their predictions are similar.
Stay alert on great weather sites including:
- https://www.met.gov.fj/index.php?page=tcoutlook
- https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/southwest-pacific-tropical-cyclone-outlook/southwest-pacific-tropical-cyclone-outlook-october-2024
UPCOMING PREDICTWIND SEMINARS
UPCOMING PREDICTWIND SEMINARS
PredictWind began sponsoring the Panama Posse in 2021. As of Season 8 PredictWind is extending their sponsorship to the entire Ocean Posse and is offering four seminars over the next 6 months.
MARK YOUR CALENDARS FOR THE UPCOMING SEMINARS
The upcoming seminar dates are as follows:
- WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 23rd, 2024 @ 15:30 US PACIFIC TIME
- THURSDAY DECEMBER 5, 2024 @ 14:30 US PACIFIC TIME
- MONDAY FEB 2, 2025 @ 14:30 US PACIFIC TIME
- MONDAY MARCH 17 2025 @ 14:30 US PACIFC TIME
PredictWind supports the Ocean Posse with free tracking and a 20 % Discount off our pro packages – to claim your discount please login and email support@predictwind.com asking for your Ocean Posse discount. Please include your vessel name and email address. The discount will be credited back.
Getting Ready to GO Cruising!
Getting Ready to GO!
by Ocean Posse member Rob Murray on SV AVANT
What do you do to get ready for a cruising season? What resources do you rely on? How can you assess the weather and potential passages months in advance? The following is a list of some of the steps we take and resources we rely on aboard Avant to get ready for a major passage that’s a few months down the line, or to get ready for a season of sailing.
First, we have a look at Jimmy Cornell’s World Cruising Routes, a staple reference guide for cruisers. While a great resource, this book is a, “comprehensive guide to over 1,000 routes covering all the oceans of the world from the tropical South Seas to the high-latitudes of the Arctic and Antarctic” – all in some 600-odd pages. While it provides breadth, it is somewhat lacking in depth. It suffers to some degree from the source of data, which is a mix of pilot charts and books overlaid heavily with the personal experience of many seasoned cruisers. Since some areas are not frequented by cruisers for various reasons, they are often omitted (for example, the 1987 edition omitted Colombia, since it was so dangerous it seemed no one cruised there). Also, since Cornell’s other endeavors (such as founding the Atlantic Rally for Cruisers [ARC]) have been long distance and circumnavigation focused, it often misses out on more coastal routes. Nonetheless, it is always our first stop for a broad overview.
Cornell does focus on the passage part of the planning and has virtually no information on local conditions to expect when you have arrived.
Regarding our plan to leave Panama, Cornell says, “Eastbound Passages from Panama can be extremely difficult at all times of the year, because of the prevailing direction of the winds and current” and that “better and more comfortable passages have been made in late spring or early summer”. Good to know.
Before Cornell wrote his guides, sailors relied on Ocean Passages for the World, publication NP136 from the British Admiralty. I think the 3rd edition of 1973 was the last to feature separate routing advice for sailing ships and power vessels (newer editions omit advice for sailing ships). It builds on the 1895, 1923 and 1960 editions and is the last Admiralty guide written for professional world sailors (the iron men in wooden ships). PDF versions can be found online and make interesting and instructive reading. While the sailing directions are directed for full rigged tall ships, they suit modern sailors because, although we may be able to sail upwind, none of us much like it. While I enjoy referring to it, I should note that its precision and brevity make Cornell look positively loquacious.
Next, we go shopping at the NGA store (National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency) is a support agency of the United States Department of Defense with the primary mission of collecting, analyzing, and distributing geospatial intelligence (GEOINT)). If the US Navy gave you command of a destroyer and said ‘go there’, the NGA would provide the travel guidebooks. The NGA annual budget is classified, but was estimated to be at least $4.9 billion in 2013. It is nice to be able to add that kind of horsepower to your cruising budget.
We get the Sailing Directions (Enroute) for our area (these include:
“detailed coastal and port approach information, supplementing the largest scale chart of the area). Each publication is subdivided into geographic regions, called sectors, which contain information about the coastal weather, currents, ice, dangers, features and ports, as well as graphic keys to standard [MIMA/DMA] nautical charts available for the area.”
They have some photos, and some sketch charts. While mainly designed for much larger vessels, they are very handy. After the introductory chapter, the detailed description of the region begins. A map/chart precedes each chapter and outlines the nautical charts used in the area to be discussed. In these chapters, as much as possible, the coastal description is in geographic sequence and gazettes the coastline, ports, anchorages, navigation aids and hazards. These are fairly current: it is unusual to find one that hasn’t been updated in the last six months or so. For example, the 2017 Publication 148 was corrected (updated) through 26 September 2020 when I downloaded it in December 2020. Similar ADMIRALTY Sailing Directions are available from the UK Hydrographic Office, but they are priced at Hardback Paper Publication: £63.50, Electronic version (AENP): £38.70 per volume, so we don’t use those.
Both publications have some information on local conditions along the coast and note currents and weather systems with much more detail than other readily available sources.
For the western Caribbean, where Avant is now, the Sailing Directions (Enroute) tell us:
“The prevailing winds are the NE trades, which frequently assume a N or E direction, also a gusty character close inshore. These winds flow strongly from December to March”
and
“During the dry season [December to March], the winds are stronger”
and
“During the dry season, the wind may freshen to a velocity of 15 knots in the vicinity of the Panama Canal, but frequently exceeds 20 knots for a period of 24 hours or more. During the wet season in the same locality, the average wind velocity is about 8 knots, but greater velocities are experienced during passing local rain squalls.”
Hmmm. We are not fans of sailing to weather in strong or gusty winds; spring sounds much better.
We also get the Sailing Directions (Planning Guides) (these include, “relevant physical, political, industrial, navigational and regulatory information about the countries adjacent to a particular ocean basin in a single volume”). The information on each country is contained in a page or two. These are not hugely useful, but they do list national holidays and Search and Rescue (SAR) contact information for each country. You generally do not want to arrive on a holiday with the attendant overtime port fees, and while you don’t want to have to call SAR, if you do need to, it’s nice to have the number.
While you are in the NGA shop, you may as well get some other e-books that may be handy – the latest American Practical Navigator (Bowditch), the latest International Code of Signals (revised 2020 – you do have the new edition aboard, don’t you?), etc.
We want to review the Pilot Charts which:
“depict averages in prevailing winds and currents, air and sea temperatures, wave heights, ice limits, visibility, barometric pressure, and weather conditions at different times of the year. The information used to compile these averages was obtained from oceanographic and meteorologic observations over many decades during the late 18th and 19th centuries. The Atlas of Pilot Charts set is comprised of five volumes, each covering a specific geographic region. Each volume is an atlas of twelve pilot charts, each depicting the observed conditions for a particular month of any given year. The charts are intended to aid the navigator in selecting the fastest and safest routes with regards to the expected weather and ocean conditions.”
There are three main ways to get these, by:
- Buying paper copies at a chart dealer or online. (This is expensive and inconvenient, and a set is heavy to carry around for the use they get. They are rarely updated, however, so they will be current for many years). They are about $45.00 US per volume, plus shipping.
- Downloading the free PDF versions at the NGA. These are big PDF files, and some computers have difficulty managing them well. They are faithful copies of the paper charts and contain all the data.
- Downloading the free versions converted to *.BSB files for use within OpenCPN. The Chart Groups feature in OpenCPN is ideally suited for viewing and organizing Pilot Charts, but its often difficult to see the chart and the explanatory text or notes at the same time.
The downside of pilot charts is that they have been developed over many years and use data reaching back at least 100 years. Since a lot of the data is from pre-satellite times, they are primarily based on data derived from shipboard observations: since ships try to avoid areas of inclement weather, the observations tend to under-report gales and high waves, and the data quality for rarely travelled routes is poorer. The upside is that they combine a huge amount of data (tens of thousands of data points, if not millions combined in a very comprehensible format: wind, waves, currents, storm tracks, and more on a single page).
Here’s a view of the Pilot Chart for the western Caribbean in January:
Where the red arrow is (just North of Santa Marta Colombia) is the region with the strongest average winds, about 23 knots. Because the data is digital, we can move our cursor around to see the average winds are almost exactly 20 knots throughout the region, which makes a bit of a difference from the 17-21 in the pilot charts. Remember, if the average wind is 20 knots, about ½ the time it is stronger than that and about ½ the time it is less.
We also like to root around a bit in satellite data sets. You can review years of data for many satellites with disparate data sets at the NOAA portal. I don’t know what the combined budget is for this satellite array, but it’s a nice data set to have access to for free.
For example, if we want to know what the waves were like in the western Caribbean, January 2020 mid-month we go to this data set and can extract wave height data:
Hmmm . . . up to about 20-22’. That puts the fun meter pretty deep in the red, we should probably look at another month for that passage.
We can also go to this data set and extract the satellite wind data for the same date:
Positively sporty, that is. I’m not liking January for voyaging in the Western Caribbean.
We also try to find cruising guides. Cruising guides for different areas in the world vary tremendously in quality, and many are out of date. For some areas, they’re just not available. We have also found errors in waypoints and just plain bad advice in some, so do check the data and be careful. As Ronald Reagan said, “trust, but verify”. Sometimes you can find cruisers going ‘the other way’ that you can trade guidebooks and check guidebook reviews with.
I spend the time to find or make satellite charts for the cruising area to use in conjunction with OpenCPN, and download satellite views to the OvitalMap application on our tablets and in SASPlanet on our PC for reference. We get at least large-scale paper charts to carry aboard (which we have never used but carry ‘just in case’). Last time I checked, the best deal was at Frugal Navigator, at about $16.00 per chart for DMA charts. For some more travelled areas, chart books are available and make a cost-effective alternative.
We also look for rallies and races in our area of interest as their websites often have good local intel (fleet briefing documents, weather synopses, lists of marine facilities, etc.). We join rallies if their interests coincide with ours, but generally avoid those that have a ‘fleet’ approach with all vessels sailing in ‘convoy’ with set departure dates, since we like to pick our own weather windows. So, sailing down the coast we looked at the website for the Baja Haha and didn’t join up, but we did join the Panama Posse since it seemed useful. In the Pacific, the Single Handed Transpac, the Pac Cup, and the Vic-Maui are good sources; in the Atlantic, the ARC (westbound) and ARC Europe (eastbound) have some useful bits. These rallies and races give you a means to meet cruisers in the area and get up-to-the-minute local knowledge from people in the area, and often offer discounts at marinas and similar places of interest.
We round out our research by looking for cruising blogs on the internet, seeking out Facebook groups for specific cruising areas, and looking at the Center for Disease Control website for health information, and UK and USA consular sites for information on safety. While some of the safety advice seems histrionic, it can be useful to have a relative gauge of what to expect in each area. The Canadian consular sites are usually not as good or up to date simply because we have fewer diplomats abroad.
To prepare for time ashore we may look at general travel guides such as the Barefoot guides or the Lonely Planet guides (printed or online), trip advisor, reviews in google maps, etc. We also download offline accessible street maps to our phones and tablets in Google Maps or another app (like Maps.me) for navigation in our land-based adventures.
Generally, gathering all this research takes an afternoon or perhaps a day (except for making the satellite charts, which can take a lot longer), then reviewing and sorting our ideas on when and where we want to move can be done at our leisure.
THANK YOU FOR SHARING YOUR ROUTE PLANNING STRATEGIES!
WEATHER ATLANTIC
WEATHER
1 SPAIN MED
2 SPAIN & PORTUGAL ATLANTIC
3 FRANCE SPAIN & PORTUGAL ATLANTIC + BAY OF BISCAY
4 MOROCCO
5 MADEIRA
7 CANARY ISLANDS SPAIN
8 CAPE VERDE
9 THE CROSSING
10 NE Antilles 16.75304243841601, -65.73162037178113
11 DR – BAHAMAS – BERMUDA
12 BERMUDA – AZORES
WEATHER SAFETY: DANA STRIKES IN THE MEDITERRANEAN LAST WEEK
WEATHER SAFETY:
DANA STRIKES IN THE MEDITERRANEAN LAST WEEK
The recent severe weather event in the Balearic Islands, known as a DANA (Depresión Aislada en Niveles Altos), caused significant damage on the Mediterranean coast, particularly to yachts and other marine vessels, and further ashore causing flash floods in southern cities and towns. DANA is a meteorological phenomenon where a pocket of cold air detaches from the main atmospheric flow at high altitudes and moves over a warmer air mass. This interaction leads to the formation of highly unstable weather conditions, resulting in intense storms, heavy rainfall, and sometimes hail, especially in Mediterranean regions like the Balearics.
DANA is an example of a severe storm erupting from extreme temperature differentials that weather forecasters are unable to predict and in this case absolutely did not predict.
As mariners living and traveling on this ocean, this type of weather event begs us to ask:
What would we do?
How would we ride out a sudden unpredicted storm?
During this particular DANA, winds reached speeds of over 40 knots, and rainfall was exceptionally heavy, with some areas experiencing nearly 50 liters of precipitation in an hour. The rapid accumulation of rain and the strong winds generated significant wave energy and storm surges, leading to the sinking of several boats and extensive damage to moorings and coastal infrastructure.
The energy generated by a DANA is significant due to the extreme temperature contrasts between the cold upper-level air and the warm surface air. This contrast fuels the severe weather, making the storms more intense and potentially destructive. The unpredictable and cyclonic nature of a DANA makes it challenging to forecast precise locations of impact, which is why such events often lead to sudden and widespread damage across affected areas.
Gerrit Haaland, a creative director at NauticFilm was in Spain watching the weather last week:
"It is correct that everyone knew this was going to happen. However, that morning, ALL the six major weather models PWE, ECMWF, GFS, UKMO, SPIRE and AROME predicted the arrival of the front to be much later and the wind speeds much lower.
Until now, I used to believe that when all the models are aligned, the prediction will be at least reasonably accurate. Seems I have to unlearn that.
I guess that with the record-breaking water temperatures in the Med, the weather is changing and the the weather models haven’t caught up yet.
My learnings:
• Stop relying on weather forecasts too much, look up more.
• Don’t consider everyone a moron who was out there yesterday. Could have happened to me just as well.
The destruction in the Balearics underscores the importance of preparedness, especially in regions prone to such meteorological phenomena, where the effects of climate change may be intensifying these events (Nautic Magazine) (Marine Industry News) (Olive Press News Spain) (Barcelona Yellow).
DANA (Depresión Aislada en Niveles Altos) can occur in various maritime and coastal regions, but it is particularly common in the Mediterranean basin, including the Iberian Peninsula, the Balearic Islands, and the broader western Mediterranean area. The phenomenon is driven by the interaction between cold air aloft and warmer surface air, conditions that are frequently met in these regions due to their unique geographic and climatic characteristics.
Susceptible Maritime Areas:
- Western Mediterranean:
- This area, including the Balearic Islands, southern France, and the coasts of Spain and Italy, is highly susceptible to DANA events. The warm waters of the Mediterranean Sea provide the necessary conditions for the warm air masses that interact with the cold air at high altitudes.
- Eastern Mediterranean:
- Although less frequent, the eastern Mediterranean, including Greece and Turkey, can also experience DANA events under the right conditions.
- Southern Spain and North Africa:
- The coastal areas along southern Spain, particularly around the Gulf of Cádiz and the Strait of Gibraltar, and parts of North Africa, can be affected by DANA, especially during the transitional seasons when the temperature contrasts are more pronounced.
- Atlantic Influences:
- While less common, DANA events can occasionally influence maritime areas of the eastern Atlantic, especially near the coastlines of Portugal and Morocco, where the cold air masses can descend from higher latitudes.
Why These Areas? The Mediterranean climate, characterized by warm, dry summers and mild, wet winters, provides a fertile ground for the development of DANA. The sharp contrasts in temperature between the cold upper-level air and the warm sea surface create the unstable atmospheric conditions necessary for DANA formation. Additionally, the complex topography and the enclosed nature of the Mediterranean Sea contribute to the intensity and unpredictability of these events (Barcelona Yellow) (Mallorca Global Mag).
ATLANTIC ROUTE WEATHER
WEATHER