SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON OUTLOOK

SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON

NOVEMBER 1-APRIL 30

NEW OUTLOOK RELEASED

Tropical cyclones, like hurricanes, are known for their powerful winds, heavy rains, and potential to cause significant destruction.  Tropical cyclones frequently affect the southern Pacific and can pose serious threats to both public health and infrastructure.  All vessels are advised to have a plan of action for the cyclone season.

Tropical cyclone risk for the 2024-25 season

According to New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and Metservice, the South Pacific may see either fewer or a normal number of tropical cyclones this season.  The cyclone season in the South Pacific starts November 1 and runs until the April 30, with the typical 'peak' of the season being January - March.   The outlook that has recently been released, "Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook - October 2024" describes a slower start to the Cyclone season, potentially less cyclone risk overall in the eastern region while potentially elevated risk in the western region.  According to the NIWA Outlook, "As of early October 2024, sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean are below average and close to La Niña thresholds."  Forecasters are observing more La Niña-like characteristics that tend to reduce risk in the east and elevate risk in the west where warmer water may 'stack up' later in the season.  As with many weather outlooks of late there continues to be caution that while there may be less risk in the frequency of tropical storms this season, there is still a risk that those that come may intensify more rapidly or simply be very intense.

Number of predicted named tropical cyclones interacting with an island group for the 2024-25 season

For cruisers in French Polynesia South Pacific Posse member Scott on Tartaruga shares:

What is critical to following storms in FP is the location of the MJO. Madden Julien Oscillation. You can research that but when that is over French Poly that is when the highest probability of big storms occur. Per some local Tahiti sailors they almost never have any cyclonic storms outside of MJO events. This last season Fiji announced the MJO forecast and when it would be over FP and boom the storms came. Also note that Fiji is the official metrological organization for these storms. Another important data point is they name their storms very early, mean the wind scale starts at a much lower number....NOAA tracks (the MJO) closely as well. I would educate yourself on how to read the graph. It is a bit strange.

Fiji Meteorological Service Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre Nadi-Tropical Cyclone Centre also just released a forecast on the upcoming tropical Cyclone season.  Their predictions are similar.

Total number of TCs forecasted for the RSMC Nadi-TCC AoR.

Stay alert on great weather sites including:


MEXICO ENTRY AND EXIT REQUIREMENTS

MEXICO ENTRY AND EXIT REQUIREMENTS

FOR FOREIGN FLAGGED VESSELS

New guide for private boats visiting Mexico is very helpful.
Knowing entry and exit requirements for the countries you plan to visit will make the impending procedure so much easier.  Quick internet searches will often guide you right to the government website that will lay out requirements which include paperwork and fees.  Many countries have been upgrading and modernizing their systems. Mexico’s system has been changing over the last few years and unfortunately made many waves forcing some cruisers to abandon their cruising plans or turn their bow a completely different direction last year.  Mexico now has many of their entry and exit procedures available online.  The online resources do not eliminate the need to visit government offices upon entry or exit; rather, they hasten the process of getting information into the 'system' that ultimately keeps track of who and what is coming and going across their boarders.  Knowing the recent pitfalls and the newest procedures available will save a lot of time and avoid potential mishaps.
The VISITING MEXICO BY PRIVATE BOAT Quick Guide put out by the tourism board is a succinct introduction to private vessel and crew entry requirements.  The guide has detailed and simplified Mexican check in procedures. The key take away is that there are two main requirements foreign flagged vessels and crew must fulfill in order to properly clear into Mexico. The wonderful news is that both procedures can be started online now.
  1. Paperwork and fees for the people (and animals) onboard the vessel.
    • This involves getting tourist visas through Immigration and going through customs.  Visitors need to provide their passport, crew list, and vessel documentation.
  2. Paperwork and fees for the Vessel to obtain a TIP.
    • TIP’s are temporary Import Permits that boat owners apply for and pay for upon entry into Mexico. Captains present vessel and ownership documentation for permit.  The TIP is on the vessel and the ownership of the vessel is unimportant. The fee is less than $100 and yet the paperwork associated with it is the vessel’s Golden ticket into Mexico.  TIP’s for foreign flagged vessels are valid for ten years in Mexican waters. Foreign vessels are meant to cancel their TIP upon exiting Mexican waters.

When a vessel leaves Mexico without cancelling their TIP and this same vessel tries to enter Mexico complications arise.  In recent years, one of the biggest challenges cruisers entering Mexico have faced is discovering that their vessel has an uncanceled TIP.  If a vessel is found in Mexico without their ‘Golden Ticket’. The vessel can be impounded immediately.  Only fees, paperwork and stress build in this scenario.

The Mexican Government has been upgrading and computerizing their TIP database that catalogs what vessels have TIPS.  There are a variety of complications that have arisen from computerizing TIPs.  In the process of creating a formal and universal database some vessels came up as having more than one TIP issued to it.  Some vessels that had a TIP and left did so without cancelling their TIP.
Most recently new complications have arisen for TIPs issued before 2005 through the Mexican government agency called Aduana. This branch of the government has since been disbanded in the past few years.  In turn, last year all TIPS issued and uncanceled through Aduana prior to 2005 were completely frozen. These TIPs could not be cancelled or re-issued. These are the vessels who were forced to completely change their plans.  As of THIS WEEK, vessels with TIPS that fall into this category HAVE NEW HOPE!
The details of this recent turn of events can be found here in an article just released October 18th, 2024 in which a couple went to Ensenada with the sole intention to cancel two pre-2005 TIPs.  Their success is offering a beacon of hope and potentially a path forward for Mexican authorities to assist vessels seeking cruising clearance into Mexico this season.
Ideally vessels with TIPs issued before 2005 will now fall into yet a new category: vessels with TIP complications that are challenging AND solvable.  Like most places sometimes a little more paperwork and fees goes a long way!  Fortunately, there are people and companies that specialize in assisting people with their TIPs. That said, If a boat owner choses to use a representative to help obtain or cancel a TIP it is very important to be certain that others before you have used their services successfully.  Last year there was an issue in Mexico's Northwesternmost port, Ensenada, whereby someone was accepting money for the service of obtaining TIPs for vessels. These vessels cruised Mexico only to discover upon exiting the country that their TIPs were not valid. In fact, they were fake and had never been properly issued. This created huge problems. The Ocean Posse has a vetted company that helps with TIP challenges.
NOTE: The majority of boats do not have TIP issues but those that do have long convoluted yarns.  
For all vessels and crew entering and exiting Mexico from the north or the south know that the system of entry and exit is improving and one can get the process rolling on the new online system available.  The online system has not replaced office visits, inspections, or the issuance of official papers with even more official stamps.  Be very sure to keep all stamped paperwork and receipts from the Entry and Exit Processes.  The same actually holds true when flying or driving in or out of Mexico: keep entry and exit receipts and paperwork.  Entry Papers are required upon exiting Mexico and, most of the time, the subsequent country of entry requires the exit papers from the last country visited.  Follow the procedures properly and clearance will ideally be smooth and easy.

OCEAN POSSE REPRESENTS AT ANNAPOLIS BOAT SHOW 2024

OCEAN POSSE REPRESENTS AT ANNAPOLIS BOAT SHOW 2024

Vessel 200 signed up at the Annapolis Boat Show this week!

EXPANDING POSSE PERKS: YACHT PORT CARTAGENA, SPAIN💰 Save real money at Marinas with discounts

ANNOUNCING: NEW MARINAS SIGNING ON WITH THE OCEAN POSSE

EXPANDING POSSE PERK:💰 Save real money at Marinas with discounts

Ocean Posse's new cruiser friendly and liveaboard friendly sponsorship marina in Cartagena Spain 🇪🇸
Dietmar tending bar. Thanks Flor de Cana! The 12 year old rum was a hit!!!

SV QUESO GRANDE II and Captain Dietmar kicked off the first Ocean Posse event in Yacht Port Cartagena, Spain!

Dietmar says: Thank you Sherri for all the event support and promotion to the international cruisers who came! AND THANK YOU LANCE FOR SOME SUCCULENT RIBS !!!

Sherri from SV QUESO GRANDE II says: Great fun, great cruisers, and great grilled meat by my darling husband Lance.  

Thank you for securing the Cartagena, Spain marina. We loved it so much, SV PATHFINDER

Currently, the Ocean Posse has ????some number of marinas in ????some number of countries bla bla bla.  This represents great savings bla bla bla

 


OVERSEAS AND ONLINE: PASSPORT RENEWAL & VOTING

OVERSEAS AND ONLINE: USA PASSPORT RENEWAL & VOTING

As a US citizen, passports and voting rights are very important.  Both can be kept up to date from afar...here's how:

After a two month beta trial, The United States Department of State has recently announced that Americans can now renew their passports online.   This is new and additional staff has been hired to process the online system.  The two caveats are for using this service: You must be located in the United States and your passport may not be expired by over 5 years.  As of now, it is unclear if this new avenue of renewal will speed up the process overall or not.  We will have to wait and see.

 

Americans have elections coming up locally and nationally.  Are you registered to vote?  Do you know that US Citizens living abroad can register to vote from overseas?

There are several online resource to help US citizens understand how to register to vote and vote from wherever they are when the time comes.  Some useful sites include:

YOUR VOTE IS YOUR VOICE

SUN POWERED YACHTS SPONSORS THE OCEAN POSSE

☀️ SUN POWERED YACHTS ☀️  

⛵SPONSORS THE OCEAN POSSE⛵

We are exited and pleased to sponsor the Panama Posse with a special

10% discount off SunPower solar panel bundles.

Just use promocode PANAMAPOSSE at checkout www.sunpoweredyachts.com/shop and start enjoying clean & quiet solar aboard your boat.

 

We also offer free consultations so please email or call and let us help you go solar today.

PRODUCTS

  • SUNPOWER
  • VICTRON
  • MAXEON
  • AERL
  • CABLES CONNECTORS SLEEVES
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Sun Powered Yachts

W: sunpoweredyachts.com

 

T: +1 808 825 2670

 

E:  lyall@sunpoweredyachts.com

E: katie@sunpoweredyachts.com

 

Lyall is from the UK and has travelled to 50 countries backpacking and sailing.  With a background in Hospitality and Event Management he found sailing in 2004 has logged over 55,000 miles and qualified as an RYA Yachtmaster Ocean.

 

Katie is from Maine and has been working in the solar industry in Hawaii for over a decade, most recently for Sunspear Energy.  Her knowledge of solar products and system design will be an asset to your yacht’s system.

Based on our time and experience sailing, on short trips and living at sea, we have created a Power Usage Chart below.  You can see more details on what each system could power on your weekend or live aboard sailing adventure.  Create your own power usage table and see what your power needs are aboard your own yacht then choose the number of solar panels accordingly

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POSSE PERK: 🗺️3 DAYS OF LEARNING SEMINARS

POSSE PERK: 🗺️3 DAYS OF LEARNING SEMINARS

INCLUDED WITH OCEAN POSSE SIGN UPS

coming up in Safe Harbor, San Diego

October 23-25, 2024 @ Safe Harbor South Bay, San Diego

 

https://oceanposse.com/events/san-diego-seminar-series/

Sneak a Peak at the Seminars and Schedule...

WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 23rd, 2024 ● SEMINARS
$ 45 per person x day or FREE
FOR OCEAN 
° PANAMA ° SOUTH PACIFIC POSSE PARTICIPANTS

09:00
Cruising down Pacific Mexico
Sea of Cortez

10:00
Water Makers + Plumbing in Paradise
Plumbing in Paradise

11:30
Diesel Engines  & Generators and preventative Maintenance
Smoky engine


12:30 LUNCH
Open CPN – installation and integration (PC + MAC )

Open Cpn with Satelit Images

14:00
Rigging 101 Standing and Running

Rigging


15:30
Weather Weather Weather – planning – routing – underway
Weather


16:30
Crew the good the bad and the ugly
CRew

17:00
Destination Costa Rica and Nicaragua

 


THURSDAY OCTOBER 24th, 2024 ● SEMINARS

09:00
South Pacific  – French Polynesia – Cook Islands – Tonga &  Fiji
SPP


10:00
Safety Security and Emergencies  outside the US and what to expect


11:00
Electrical Systems – Batteries, Chargers, Alternators, Solar Panels

batteries

12:30 LUNCH
Cruising in Panama + the Panama Canal
SAN BLAS


14:00
Where and how to repair boats outside the US

Repairs


15:30
The tropics – Refrigeration, AC, Shading,  Airflow + other ways to stay cool
AC


17:00
Destination Colombia, Jamaica & Bay of Islands Honduras
ROATAN

 


FRIDAY OCTOBER 25th, 2024 ● SEMINARS + PARTY

09:00
Destination Belize & Rio Dulce Guatemala
Blue Hole Belize Cruising Ground and how to get there


10:00
Communications onboard, underway and on shore
STARLINK

11:30
The fundamentals of wires, connectors and fuses
GROUND


12:30 LUNCH
Open CPN – Satellite Charts – Use Cases and Satellite Chart creation


14:00
Chart Accuracy, Navigation Trips and Tricks & Tracking
CHART ACCURACY


15:30
Provisioning, Propane and Fuel – where to replenish
PROVISIONS


17:00 – 21:00  
PPPPARTY
SOUTH BAY SAFE HARBOR


UPCOMING PREDICTWIND SEMINARS

UPCOMING PREDICTWIND SEMINARS

PredictWind began sponsoring the Panama Posse in 2021.  As of Season 8 PredictWind is extending their sponsorship to the entire Ocean Posse and is offering four seminars over the next 6 months.

MARK YOUR CALENDARS FOR THE UPCOMING SEMINARS

The upcoming seminar dates are as follows:

  • WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 23rd, 2024     @ 15:30  US PACIFIC TIME
  • THURSDAY DECEMBER 5,  2024           @  14:30 US PACIFIC TIME
  • MONDAY FEB 2, 2025                           @ 14:30  US PACIFIC TIME
  • MONDAY MARCH 17 2025                  @ 14:30   US PACIFC TIME

PredictWind supports the Ocean Posse with free tracking and a 20 % Discount off our pro packages – to claim your discount please login and email support@predictwind.com asking for your Ocean Posse discount.  Please include your vessel name and email address.  The discount will be credited back.


PASSAGE REPORT TO PANAMA FROM COLUMBIA

PASSAGE REPORT TO PANAMA FROM COLUMBIA:

with Check-In Procedure at El Porvenir

After sailing for 2 days from Columbia, SV ATARAXIA is ready to drop the hook and listen to the wind in the palm fronds.

Recently, SV ATARAXIA sailed from northern Columbia to Panama.  They wanted to visit a very unique and special part of Panama: the Guna Yala Archipelago, also known as the San Blas Islands before.  The Archipelago is in northeastern Panamanian waters and is home to the Guna (or Kuna) Yala people, the largest Panamanian indigenous group.  The archipelago is known for being a jewel of Panama with palm covered islands amid clear turquoise water.

SV ATARAXIA wanted to visit this archipelago upon entering Panamanian waters pushing on to the more formal and bustling city of Colon on Panama's mainland, at the northern end of the Panama Canal.  Below Skipper Ludwig shares from his passage notes their experience entering Panama through El Porvenir:

Well, we were right : you should have come. Guna Yala is really beautiful.

We left Cartagena de Indias, Colombia 2 days ago and last night was a pretty calm night. We sailed under main alone and we still were making good enough speed that we had to turn a circle at sea before entering El Porvenir, allowing us to come in during daylight.

We anchored and went ashore to ask where immigration was. El Porvenir is in fact just 1 airstrip for small planes and that explains why there is immigration. But first you need to visit the Comarca Guna Yala congresso office to pay to the indigenous people that own these islands for a ‘cruising permit’, something like an entry fee for paradise. Then it is on to the immigration office. Given there are only 2 buildings or rather structures, it wasn’t all that difficult to find even if you hadn’t slept much the previous night.

When it was finally our turn to be cleared in, all we needed was some extra photocopies (conveniently available at the congresso for 50 cts) and we got our immigration stamps. What about customs? “Go and do that in Colon” we were told. OK, nothing can be perfect not even in paradise.

Noonsite says that you can clear immigration in El Porvenir, and indeed they do. They stamp both your passport and your exit zarpe from Colombia. It looks like a stamp is the only thing they have, so they do not produce any paper, they just....stamp. We had our agent, Erick Galvez request a cruising permit for us beforehand. In fact, we set that in motion a month before arriving in Panama. It still wasn't ready when we got to El Porvenir, an unusual slow process that has since (we were there early June 2024) been sped up. Either way, we were assured by every instance be it official or non-official that our immigration stamps were really the critical ones and we had those!  We received our cruising permit while we were back in the USA and our boat on the hard. While this sounds 'different' from other places, to the Panamanians it seemed pretty obvious. And every single official was friendly, ...and so were we.

While we were anchoring at first light, 2 canoes with Guna women were paddling towards us. We had some trouble finding the right spot to anchor and so these ladies had their rowing workout cut out for them, chasing ATARAXIA.

It is not my preferred thing to do, bartering over molas or other stuff after being awake for half a night, but it was clear these ladies were not going to give up, so we have some very nice molas already to fly home with us.

Molas are typically hand sewn, fabric, works of art that are worn by Guna Yala women and represent protective connection with the spirit world. Selling molas to tourists has become big part of their economy.

Then we moved the boat to Lemon Cays, one of these smaller archipelagoes where all the islands end in ‘dup’ (Bandup, Nuriandup or some other tongue twister). Upon arrival we were greeted by a canoe with 3 fishermen who held up a lobster in the international language of trade. We signaled to hold off a bit so that we could anchor but once that was out of the way, we bought 4 lobster for 5USD per piece. We didn’t even try to get a lower price. With that, you know what Louis, our crew-chef is working on right now.

Fresh lobster for dinner!

Time for the restless to go and explore the underwater world and they came back with all the wonderful things they saw including a shark (a real one, not a nurse shark). While they were doing that, I stayed back to defend the fort, hey someone got to do it, and sure enough we were invaded by a clever bird that flew into the cabin, picked open the plastic packaging of a baguette and decided those baguettes are really good. I agreed and therefore I chased him away. We want to eat that baguette (at least the other part of it).

We intend to stay 2 nights here in this anchorage as there is a lot more to explore.

Ludwig, living the good life.

SV ATARAXIA 🇳🇱 LudwigEtap Yachting 46’

 

THANK YOU FOR SHARING YOUR EXPERIENCE LUDWIG!


FIJI REGATTA WEEK 2024

UPCOMING EVENT : FIJI REGATTA WEEK

 11-15 September, 2024

in beautiful Musket Cove

Annual Musket Cove Regatta.

Registration for the 2024 40th Anniversary Regatta is now open. Please book early! 

This link will take you to the Regatta Registration form.

Please note this form is for Regatta Registrations only. For all Marina Berth and Mooring bookings, please email Patrick directly at: mcyc@musketcovefiji.com. Please book early as there are limited Marina Berths available.

https://pacificposse.com/musket-cove-marina

MUSKET COVE MARINA 🇫🇯

SPONSORS THE PANAMA POSSE

We welcome any of the South Pacific Posse to Musket Cove at any time.

We’re pleased to offer a Free Berthing Day for 5 Paid Days to all of your Posse Members.

Wayne Deed

Director of Sales & Marketing

Musket Cove Island Resort & Marina

Malolo Lailai Island

Fiji Islands

m| +64 21 824266

P |  +679 666 2215

www.musketcovefiji.com